On Wednesday morning our consultants provided the advisory committee an update on their work to develop enrollment projections for our elementary schools.
The enrollment projection is still a work-in-progress, and will not be ready until late next week. The committee will meet again on Friday December 12 to receive the completed findings on enrollment. There were no school-level projections shared today.
The enrollment model that is under construction consists of two major components. The first component is a ‘business-as-usual’ model of school-age children, given the current housing stock and historical trends of births, migration in/out, and public vs. private school attendance. This model is complete in aggregate, and shows a steady K-12 population in UCFSD with a slow decline starting in 2018. Geo-mapping all households to elementary schools, following existing boundaries, is not yet complete.
The second component of the model adds in additional school-age children from new housing stock that will be built in the district. These housing developments are at different stages — some are under construction now; others are approved but not started, and still other projects are on the drawing board but far from getting started. So projected new K-12 students from these developments are added into the projection over the short-, medium-, and long-term, depending on the stage of the housing development. Our seven townships are providing this information to the consultants, but that work is not yet complete.
So the two unknowns at the moment are:
- Even if the overall population in the district remains steady or declines, will we continue to see past school-level trends continue (i.e. Pocopson increasing and Unionville and Hillendale decreasing)?
- What will be the impact of new housing on enrollment, school by school?
By next Friday, we should have the answers to these questions, and have school-level enrollment projections for the next 5-10 years. With this information, we should be able to answer the question on all of our minds — do we need to redistrict?
The committee meets again on Friday December 12 with the consultants, and intends to make a recommendation to the Board based on the results of the study.
Then there is a special Board meeting to review the results of the study, hear the recommendation of the committee, and openly discuss what comes next.
My previously stated views on Redistricting are still intact, and can be found here.
Previous updates on Redistricting (oldest to newest) are here: